Report: California to shed 1M jobs during recession - Minneapolis / St. Paul Business Journal:

qypytcuvy.blogspot.com
The pace of private-sector job lossese will slow over the nextfew months, but statde and local government layoffs are beginning, the Business Forecastinyg Center at the said in its latest Californiaq and Metro Forecast released Wednesday. The forecast said California’s unemployment will peak at 12.3 percent earlgy next year, and will remainn in double-digits until the end of 2011. The centef produces quarterly economic forecasts of theUnitesd States, California and nine metro areas, from Sacramento to Fresnko and the San Francisco Bay Area. In the Sacramento unemployment will risefrom 11.1 percenf this year to peak at 11.4 percent next before dipping to 10.
2 percent in the report said. Unemployment is expected to reacy 9.2 percent in 2012. The Sacramento area is forecastg to rebound in the third quarter of next when job growth will improvesto 0.8 percent. A “stron g rebound is expected to take place in professionaloand business, and educational and health servicesw sectors,” the report said of Sacramento. “Job growth is expecteed to have its firsg positive full yearat 2.0 percent in Sacramento’s real personal income, meanwhile, will grow at a slow rate of 1.5 percenty next year.
San Jose and San Francisco will be the first metro areas in Northern Californiaq to return totheir pre-recessiojn employment levels, in the second and third quartere of 2012, respectively, the study said. Sacramento and Mercec will be among the last north states metro areas to regaihpeak employment, in fourth-quarter 2013. Vallejo is last, with a returnn expected in the second quarterof 2014. The Central Valleg will be hard hit by the combination of receng state tax increases and massive expectedbudgegt cuts, the Business Forecasting Center “The state budget crisis is a dangerous aftershock to a region still reeling from the foreclosure earthquake,” Jeff director of the Business Forecastinv Center, said in a news release.
The Centrao Valley is an economicdisastetr area, but most of its “economic shocks are cyclicaol in nature rather than permanent changezs such as closed military bases,” the news releass said. • Construction continues to lead job losses inpercentaged terms, declining another 15 percent to 110,000 in 2009. Manufacturing will lead the declinein 2009, losingy 135,000 jobs this • Retail sales will not return to their 2007 levek until 2011. • New car and truc k sales will fallbelow 1.06 milliob in 2009, after exceeding 2 million for most of the Sales will gradually increase as the economty recovers, reaching 1.46 million next and 1.73 million in 2011.
• Housinh starts hit bottom in 2009at 36,000 more than 80 percent beloa the levels seen in 2004 and 2005. Housinbg starts will be back to 100,000 units in and exceed 150,000 by 2013. • Health care is the only sectorr that will not shrink this The gainof 13,000 health care jobs, or 0.9 is the slowest growth this decade. • Personakl income declines 0.8 percent in 2009. Nonfarm payrolls will declineby 1,020,000 jobs statewidre during the two-year recession. The California economy will finally hit bottomn in the fourth quarter of this and will begina slow, multi-year recovery.
It will be 2013 beforwe many key economic indicatorws such as unemployment return tohealthyg levels. • The state’s recession should end in the last quarterd ofthis year, but the job marketf will remain weak throughj most of next year.